A mathematical model of Chikungunya transmission incorporating a fear parameter and a chronic-outcome variabl‌e

Authors
Majid Erfanian 1
mortaza Gachpazan 2
hossein gholami 2
1 University of Zabol
2 University of ferdowsi
Abstract
This study investigates the role of fear and anxiety induced by the spread of the Chikungunya virus in the community from a mathematical perspective. Fear can have dual effects: increasing fear levels enhances public awareness, promotes adherence to preventive measures, and encourages faster medical consultation by symptomatic individuals; however, excessive fear may lead to delays in hospitalization, increased chronic complications, and wider disease spread.


To examine these effects, a‏‎n ‎‎$‎‎11$ ‎‎$11$-compartmental mathematical model for virus transmission was developed, consisting of $8$ human subpopulations and $3$ vector (mosquito) subpopulations. The initial conditions were determined based on real data from Colombia in $2015$ and biological assumptions. The main model parameters were calibrated using weekly data on symptomatic cases.


The results indicate that the model successfully reproduces the epidemic trend and the dynamics of infected and chronic populations. Moreover, behavioral parameters such as $gamma_alpha$ and $q_s$ play a crucial role in regulating the burden on the healthcare system and determining the final disease load.‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎
Keywords
‎Chikungunya virus‎‎
The role of fear and anxiet‌y‎
Chronic complications‎
‎Curve fitting
Global Stability
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