مدل‌سازی ریاضی انتقال بیماری چیکونگونیا با در نظر گرفتن پارامتر ترس و متغیر پیامدهای مزمن

نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه زابل
2 دانشگاه فردوسی
چکیده
این مطالعه نقش ترس و اضطراب ناشی از شیوع ویروس چیکونگونیا در جامعه را از دیدگاه ریاضی بررسی می‌کند. ترس می‌تواند اثرات دوگانه داشته باشد: افزایش سطح ترس، آگاهی عمومی را بالا برده و باعث رعایت اقدامات پیشگیرانه و مراجعه سریع‌تر افراد مبتلا به مراکز درمانی می‌شود، اما ترس بیش از حد ممکن است منجر به تأخیر در بستری شدن، افزایش عوارض مزمن و گسترش بیشتر بیماری شود.


برای بررسی این اثرات، یک مدل ریاضی ‎$‎‎11$‎ کلاسه برای انتقال ویروس ارائه شد که شامل $8$ زیرجمعیت انسانی و $3$ زیرجمعیت پشهٔ ناقل است. شرایط اولیه بر اساس داده‌های واقعی کلمبیا در سال $2015$ و فرضیات زیستی تعیین گردید. پارامترهای اصلی مدل با استفاده از داده‌های هفتگی بیماران علامت‌دار برازش شده‌اند.


نتایج نشان می‌دهند که مدل قادر است روند شیوع بیماری و دینامیک جمعیت‌های آلوده و مزمن را به‌خوبی بازتولید کند، و پارامترهای رفتاری مانند $gamma_alpha$ و $q_s$ نقش کلیدی در کنترل فشار بر سیستم درمان و بار نهایی بیماری دارند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

A mathematical model of Chikungunya transmission incorporating a fear parameter and a chronic-outcome variabl‌e

نویسندگان English

Majid Erfanian 1
mortaza Gachpazan 2
hossein gholami 2
1 University of Zabol
2 University of ferdowsi
چکیده English

This study investigates the role of fear and anxiety induced by the spread of the Chikungunya virus in the community from a mathematical perspective. Fear can have dual effects: increasing fear levels enhances public awareness, promotes adherence to preventive measures, and encourages faster medical consultation by symptomatic individuals; however, excessive fear may lead to delays in hospitalization, increased chronic complications, and wider disease spread.


To examine these effects, a‏‎n ‎‎$‎‎11$ ‎‎$11$-compartmental mathematical model for virus transmission was developed, consisting of $8$ human subpopulations and $3$ vector (mosquito) subpopulations. The initial conditions were determined based on real data from Colombia in $2015$ and biological assumptions. The main model parameters were calibrated using weekly data on symptomatic cases.


The results indicate that the model successfully reproduces the epidemic trend and the dynamics of infected and chronic populations. Moreover, behavioral parameters such as $gamma_alpha$ and $q_s$ play a crucial role in regulating the burden on the healthcare system and determining the final disease load.‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎‎

کلیدواژه‌ها English

‎Chikungunya virus‎‎
The role of fear and anxiet‌y‎
Chronic complications‎
‎Curve fitting
Global Stability
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